Why This November is a Rare Buyer Window in Orange County
Why is this November shaping up to be a rare window of opportunity for Orange County homebuyers?
Because rates have dropped, inventory has opened up, and sellers are more negotiable—all at the same time. Conditions like this don’t last long.
A Rare Window for Buyers
Right now, Orange County buyers are in a uniquely favorable position. Rates are down, inventory is higher than it’s been in years, and many listings are still sitting on the market.
It’s the first time in a long time that buyers have had both choice and leverage—but that balance won’t last.
Rates & Affordability
After a year of hovering above 7%, mortgage rates have finally fallen below 6.5%—and have stayed there for nearly two months, marking the lowest sustained level in over a year.
Unlike short-lived dips in 2023, this drop appears to have staying power. With the economy softening and inflation easing, many projections show rates remaining in this range well into early 2026.
That’s already translating into improved affordability:
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A buyer purchasing a $1.4 million home today is saving roughly $550 a month compared to when rates were at 7.0%.
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This savings reopens options that had been priced out earlier in the year.
It’s why serious buyers are quietly stepping back into the market before competition heats up again.
Inventory: The Most Selection Since 2019
Inventory has been one of the biggest stories of 2025. After two years of record-low supply, Orange County now has 4,288 active listings—up 18% year-over-year, giving buyers more selection than at any point since 2019.
However, the trend is starting to shift again:
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Inventory dropped 4% in the last two weeks, signaling tightening conditions.
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574 homes were pulled from the market in just the first three weeks of October.
As we move deeper into the holiday season, fewer new listings and more seasonal removals will continue to reduce available inventory.
Demand Remains Surprisingly Strong
Demand dipped just 2% in the last two weeks, which is typical for this time of year. Despite that, activity is still stronger than expected—driven by improving affordability and renewed buyer confidence.
With lower rates, many buyers who had paused earlier in the year are back, focusing on homes that align closely with market value.
Expected Market Time: The Market Is Getting Healthier
Expected Market Time—how long it takes to sell a home at the current pace—has improved from 85 to 83 days, showing the market is actually firming up even as we head into the holidays.
But that number only tells part of the story:
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Homes priced correctly are selling fast.
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Homes priced too high are sitting and negotiating.
Many sellers who’ve been on the market for 60+ days are now more realistic, offering price adjustments, seller credits, or rate buy-down incentives.
For buyers, that means more flexibility—and more opportunity.
Final Takeaways
For Buyers
This is your moment.
Lower rates, more selection, and motivated sellers mean you have more leverage than you’ll likely see in 2026.
If you’ve been waiting for the right combination of price and opportunity—this is it. Contact our team, estimate your mortgage payment, and we'll get started on your pre-qualification.
For Sellers
Inventory is higher than last year but beginning to tighten again as we move into the holidays. That means less competition for your property heading into year-end.
With serious buyers still active and rates stabilizing, strategic pricing and presentation remain key. Listing before the spring rush could give you a powerful advantage. Request a complimentary Home Valuation to get started.
The Bottom Line
The Orange County real estate market is entering a rare balance—buyers have leverage, sellers have motivation, and rates have room to move lower.
It’s a window of opportunity that history shows won’t last long.
If you’re considering buying or selling and want a data-backed strategy—not guesswork—connect with Tim Smith Real Estate Group, the #1 Coldwell Banker team in California.
