Winter Market Momentum Builds as Buyer Demand Returns to Orange County
The Orange County housing market has officially entered the Winter Market, a seasonal shift that historically marks the beginning of rising buyer demand, improving affordability, and accelerating market activity. After a slow holiday period, buyers are re-entering the market while inventory increases at a much slower pace. Mortgage rates are now materially lower than they were at the start of 2025, setting the stage for an active early 2026 market. Understanding how and when these seasonal shifts occur—and how to act on them—is where strategy matters most.
What the Winter Market Means for the Orange County Real Estate Market
Every year, regardless of economic headlines, the Orange County real estate market follows a predictable seasonal pattern. The Holiday Market gives way to the Winter Market in mid-January, when buyer activity increases rapidly while inventory grows more slowly. This imbalance is what causes the market to accelerate from week to week.
Mortgage Rates and Affordability in Orange County
Mortgage rates have hovered between 6% and 6.5% since early fall, a full percentage point lower than where rates started last year. This is the most sustained period of improved affordability since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022. As affordability improves, sidelined buyers tend to re-enter the market, fueling demand through the Winter and Spring Markets. Use our Mortgage Calculator to get clear on what you can afford.
Orange County Housing Inventory: What Buyers and Sellers Are Seeing
Active inventory rose 13% in early January to 3,062 homes, marking the highest mid-January level since 2020. Much of this increase is seasonal, driven by homes that were pulled during the holidays and are now relisting. Even so, inventory remains well below pre-COVID norms. This creates a brief period where buyers have more options, while sellers still benefit from long-term supply constraints. Explore the market's latest inventory here.
Buyer Demand in the Orange County Housing Market
Buyer demand dipped temporarily in early January, reaching 914 pending sales. This seasonal slowdown is short-lived. Historically, demand accelerates sharply between mid-January and mid-March. This acceleration often begins quietly and becomes obvious only once competition has already increased.
How Long Homes Are Taking to Sell in Orange County
Expected Market Time increased to 101 days in early January, reflecting the temporary imbalance between rising inventory and slower holiday-season demand. As buyer activity ramps up, this metric typically declines rapidly. As market time compresses, leverage shifts away from buyers and toward sellers.
What This Means for Orange County Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers
This is the launch window. Mortgage rates are lower, competition is still relatively light, and inventory has improved compared to last year. Buyers who act early in the Winter Market often benefit from better selection, stronger negotiating leverage, and less competition than they will face later in the spring.
For Sellers
Buyer demand is building, not peaking. As the Winter Market progresses, buyer activity increases faster than inventory. Sellers who price correctly and prepare early are well positioned as momentum builds heading into the Spring Market.
Final Thoughts on the Orange County Real Estate Market
The Winter Market has officially arrived. Buyer demand is beginning to accelerate, affordability has improved meaningfully, and inventory remains constrained relative to historical norms. The weeks ahead are often when the strongest opportunities quietly take shape—before competition peaks in the spring.
If you’re considering buying or selling in Orange County, understanding how these market dynamics apply to your specific neighborhood and price range is critical. Contact us at [email protected] to schedule a no-obligation consultation, or visit request a Home Valuation to get started.
