When Is the Best Time to Buy a House in Orange County? [2025 Market Update]

The Orange County housing market is one of the most desirable—and most resilient—in the country. As we move through 2025, buyers and sellers alike are wondering: Where is the market heading? Is this the right time to act, or is it better to wait?

History, fundamentals, and local dynamics all point to the same conclusion: 2025 offers a rare opportunity for buyers, while 2026 is poised to bring the start of the next recovery cycle.

The Post-Election Window

Real estate often follows election cycles. In nine of the last ten presidential elections, home prices have appreciated between 6% and 27% in the 12 months following Election Day.

The only exception was 2008, during the global financial crisis.

Now that the 2024 election is behind us, we are in the critical period where history suggests appreciation begins to build. For Orange County homeowners and buyers, that means 2025 is the year to prepare for the market shift that’s likely to accelerate in 2026.

Five Things to Remember About the Market

1. Every downturn ends in recovery

On average, housing downturns last about three years. We’ve seen declines in 2023 and 2024, and 2025 keeps us in that cycle. By 2026, recovery is expected to begin, positioning Orange County real estate for the next wave of growth.

2. Rates drive growth

Mortgage rates recently dipped to around 6.5%. Even small reductions can fuel significant buyer demand, and further drops will accelerate activity. Rates are the single most powerful driver of market momentum.

3. Fundamentals are strong

Despite short-term adjustments, Orange County’s fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Employment levels are stable, the local economy is healthy, and the coastal lifestyle continues to attract buyers from across the nation and the globe.

4. Demographics are on our side

Millennials are entering peak homebuying years. Baby Boomers are downsizing into lifestyle-rich communities. International buyers continue to view Orange County as a safe, luxury investment. Together, these groups create steady, long-term demand.

5. They’re not making any more coastline

Scarcity defines Orange County real estate. With limited land and a fixed coastline, supply can’t keep pace with demand. When the market turns, it won’t be a ripple—it will be a tidal wave change.

Why 2025 Is the Best Buying Opportunity in Years

If recovery is expected in 2026, then 2025 is the year buyers can still find leverage:

• More negotiation power – Sellers remain flexible on price and terms.

• Less competition – Many buyers are waiting on the sidelines for rates to fall further.

• Long-term equity – Buying now positions you to ride the wave of appreciation once the recovery begins.

As the saying goes: The definition of a good deal is anything you bought 10 years ago. By 2035, Orange County homes purchased in 2025 will look like some of the best opportunities of this cycle.

Buyer Strategy in Today’s Market

• Act before competition returns – Waiting until 2026 may mean paying more and competing in bidding wars.

• Explore creative financing – Adjustable-rate or hybrid loans can help bridge the gap until rates settle lower.

• Prioritize lifestyle-driven locations – Proximity to beaches, schools, and walkability are drivers of long-term value in Orange County.

Seller Strategy in Today’s Market

• Position now for early movers – Motivated buyers are still active, especially for well-presented homes.

• Invest in marketing – Exposure matters. High-end buyers often come from outside the area; global reach is essential.

• Time your sale strategically – Sellers prepared in 2025 will be best positioned to capture demand as rates ease and recovery accelerates in 2026.

Why Orange County Real Estate Is Different

While other markets across the U.S. may struggle, Orange County is defined by:

• Lifestyle demand – Beaches, schools, weather, and community drive enduring desirability.

• Scarcity – Limited coastal inventory means long-term appreciation is built in.

• Resilience – Downturns are shorter and recoveries stronger here than almost anywhere else.

That’s why Orange County continues to be one of the most secure places to invest in real estate—whether you’re buying a first home, a move-up property, or a luxury estate.

Final Thoughts

Yes, 2025 still feels like a slowdown year. But remember: downturns always end in recovery, and this one is expected to pivot in 2026. That makes 2025 a buyer’s market—one where you have more time, leverage, and opportunity than you will once the rebound begins. Explore Orange County Homes For Sale.

For sellers, preparation this year ensures you’re ready to capitalize when buyer demand surges back.

This is not just a tide change. In Orange County, the next shift will be a tidal wave change.

Let’s Build Your Strategy

📞 Call the Tim Smith Real Estate Group today to discuss your buying or selling strategy in Orange County. Whether you’re preparing for 2026 recovery or ready to act now, the smartest move is starting the conversation.