Orange County buyers have more homes to choose from as November begins, while the approaching holiday season could help sellers stand out as competing listings leave the market. Higher mortgage rates are shaping purchasing decisions, but moves are still happening—and understanding the numbers can help you plan yours.
This November Orange County real estate market update from Tim Smith and the Tim Smith Real Estate Group examines mortgage rates, buyer demand, available inventory, and the seasonal changes ahead. Market figures reflect data as of October 26, 2026.
Mortgage Rates and Buyer Demand
Higher Rates Are Shaping Monthly Budgets
Mortgage rates stood at 7.33%, compared with 6.19% a year earlier. A roughly three-quarter-percentage-point increase in September created a meaningful change in borrowing costs, prompting buyers to reassess what fits comfortably within their monthly budgets.
The effect extends beyond a home’s asking price. Buyers need to consider their financing alongside property taxes, insurance, and any association dues. Establishing that budget before touring helps make the search more focused and puts buyers in a better position to evaluate a purchase.
Demand Is Beginning to Level Out
Buyer demand, measured by new pending sales over the previous month, declined about 2% over two weeks to 1,219. That was roughly 21% below the same time last year. Although the decline has begun to level out, affordability continues to influence how many buyers can make a move.
Upcoming employment and inflation data will help shape the direction of mortgage rates. Lower rates could improve affordability and encourage additional activity, but a purchase plan should work with a payment the buyer can manage today rather than depend on a particular rate forecast.
Orange County Housing Inventory
More Selection Than Last Year
Orange County had 4,948 active listings, approximately 15% more than a year earlier. The unusual part of this fall is how little inventory has declined: available listings were down just 2% from the August peak, compared with a 14% decline during the same stretch last year.
With fewer homes going into escrow, listings are remaining available longer. That gives buyers a broader selection to compare across locations, property types, condition, and price.
Supply Remains Below Pre Pandemic Levels
Despite the increase from last year, inventory remains below the roughly 6,000 homes available on average at this time of year before the pandemic. Many owners are still reluctant to exchange a low fixed mortgage rate for a higher rate on their next purchase, limiting the flow of new listings.
The result is a market with more selection than buyers had a year ago, while overall supply remains constrained by homeowners choosing to stay put.
Understanding Expected Market Time
A Measure of the Overall Buying Pace
Expected Market Time reached 122 days, compared with 83 days a year earlier. This metric estimates how long it would take to sell all current listings at the existing buying pace. It describes the balance between supply and demand; it does not predict the selling timeline for an individual home.
Detached homes are moving faster than condos and townhomes. A countywide figure therefore provides useful context, but a specific property should be evaluated against comparable homes in its own neighborhood and price range.
The Holiday Outlook for Orange County Real Estate
Seasonal Changes Could Reduce Available Listings
Housing activity typically becomes quieter as Thanksgiving approaches. Fewer new homes are listed, and some sellers remove their properties until the new year. Today’s selection could narrow as those seasonal patterns take hold.
The holidays do not put every move on hold. Relocations, changing household needs, and other personal timelines continue to bring buyers and sellers into the market throughout the year.
What Buyers and Sellers Can Do Now
Sellers who remain active may face fewer competing listings during the holiday period. Thoughtful preparation, realistic pricing, and strong marketing can help a home make a clear impression on buyers who are comparing their options carefully.
Buyers can use the current selection to compare homes and explore potential terms. Staying prepared with financing and a clear understanding of priorities makes it easier to recognize the right fit, especially if available inventory begins to shrink.
Plan Your Next Move With the Tim Smith Real Estate Group
The right approach depends on your neighborhood, property type, and goals. Whether you are considering a purchase or preparing to sell, the Tim Smith Real Estate Group can help translate Orange County’s broader market trends into a plan for your next move.
Contact Tim Smith and the team to discuss your plans, and subscribe to our email newsletter or YouTube channel for monthly Orange County real estate market updates.
